Analysis of the Men’s action after Games 1 and 2

After 2 rounds of Group A and Group B Pool Play, very little has happened to change my opinions and expectations from what they were going into this tournament. China, for all the hype surrounding this game and for the thoughts that the size of Yao and Yi and Wang ZhiZhi might present some problems for the US, really was overwhelmed in Game 1. China understandably came out with an incredible amount of energy and emotion, and played about as well as they could early. When Yao dropped in a 3 from the top of the key to start China’s scoring, the place went bonkers and there was a moment where you wondered if China could make a game of this. A few seconds later and a few dunk finishes on what has seemed like an eternal fast break drill and the US had established their overwhelming physical dominance.

God Bless Angola but it was even more of the same with them. They still are better at making sweaters, (or is that Angora ???) than they are at playing hoops. I don’t remember seeing a game where more layups were pinned on the glass or volleyball spiked into the third row. By the way, LeBron trails only Chinese gymnasts and Phelps in collective Oohs and Aahs moments in these games.

After the first few games, here is my scouting report of Team USA:

My breakdown of Team USA’s strengths and weaknesses:

Team USA Strengths:
1. Unmatched Athletic ability

In LeBron, Kobe, DWade, Carmelo, and Dwight Howard, the US team has guys that have a physical skill set (size, speed, jumping ability and strength) that no one else in the Olympics can match. Paul, Williams, Boozer, Bosh and Prince also are gifted, but not as dramatically as those others while only Redd and Kidd would be considered average athletes in this tournament. There are the occasional players for other teams with physical gifts (Yao’s size, the body control of Ginobili and Spannoulis, the height plus speed plus wiry strength of Kirilenko and Gasol, the foot speed and ballandling quickness of Ricky Rubio and Patrick Mills, etc) but there is no comparison to the combination of gifts the top 5 – 8 Americans have.

Yes, this is basketball and not the decathlon nor a running race. You still have to shoot the ball and pass the ball and use your mental capacity and manage your emotions, and play team defense, etc. I was a former player who was neither as tall nor as quick as the players I regularly went up against. Nobody wants to believe that you can make up for lack of physical gifts with guile, effort, preparation, shooting ability, etc. more than I do. Certainly this is true to a certain extent. But the overmatched person has to be THAT MUCH better and play a flawless game to overcome dramatic physical differences.

It can happen and does happen all the time, almost always in a “one and done” format like the NCAA tourney or Medal Play in an Olympics. You needn’t look any further back than Greece vs USA in last Olympics to find an example of this. You have your Villanova over Georgetown, your Team USA hockey over USSR in 1980 examples, and we all know that they can happen. Many times these happen because the other team also contributes to the upset by being overconfident.  I don’t think is going to happen to this team and I think this ends up being Strength 2 of this version of Team USA:

2. Focus and Effort

Having great focus unfortunately usually comes from losing games and losing Championships. The benefit ultimately is that no longer can the US come into tournaments and Olympic games going through the motions for long periods of time without getting burned. Coach K and his staff are the beneficiaries of what has happened before and believe me, it is a lot easier and a lot more fun to coach a team that is self motivated and one whose attention you have. I also think these guys are having fun, which makes it easier to stay focused. They are attending events, they are visiting tourist attractions, they are acting like normal people.  They should be acting normal,  of course, and they should be having fun, but we know that hasn’t always been the case.

* incidentally, LeBron might be even in a better mood with today’s breaking news:

http://www.ohio.com/news/top_stories/26919019.html?rss=true

3. Depth

Team USA can go 12 deep. They can withstand foul trouble, poor individual performance nights, and even injuries because of their depth. Especially at the 2, 3 and 4, but even at the 1 position as well, The 2, 3 and 4 positions are so good it’s a joke. The Americans are clearly the deepest team in the tournament. Give me any combination of Kobe, LeBron, Carmelo, Williams, Redd, Bosh, Boozer or Prince and you would have a hell of a trio of swing players/forwards.

If Bogut or Yao or Dirk or Šarūnas Jasikevičius or Kirilenko, etc have off nights, their teams do not have enough other firepower to overcome. Two or three of those swing players for the US can be MIA and they can survive it. The depth of the US will really show up late in games where the US can stay fresh and late in the tournament where the US can stay fresh.

The only concern for the US is at the 5 position if Howard gets injured or fouls out early against a powerful inside team, like Greece or possibly Spain or Argentina.

Certainly there are some legitimate concerns for Team USA, and I would rank them as such:

1. Perimeter Shooting

This has been an issue for years and although the US attempted to rectify this by adding Michael Redd, I don’t think they still have as good of shooting team as I would like to see. I have always believed that you can never have too many shooters, especially in light of the shorter 3 point line. If guys like Ray Allen didn’t want to play, there was still a reason to consider adding someone like Mike Miller or Rip Hamilton or James Jones or Daniel Gibson or even a specialist like Kapono. I think you could have swapped out Jason Kidd for another shooter and you would have been a stronger team. I understand all of the things that Kidd brings to the team and I know of his undefeated record, but he is not the player he used to be and the US is playing better basketball with CP3 or Deron Williams at the point. After the first 2 games, the US is shooting only 27% from 3pt range, and remember that this is from a much closer line than in the NBA.

2. Rebounding

Lack of traditional post player/type size would lead you to believe that rebounding will be a huge problem. It is hard to tell now after the first 2 games, but I think the US will be able to keep this from being a huge issue. When Team USA is going small with LeBron at 4 and Kobe at 3, both of those guys have to resist the urge to leak out early and they must stay at home until Howard or Bosh can control the boards.

The US will rebound by committee and probably will at times need their bigs to faceguard blockout (meaning just staying between the other big and the bucket by staying face up and not worrying about seeing the ball). When you just wrestle with and occupy the other teams rebounding threat, you at least keep him from crashing the boards. Thus you rely on having your 2’s and 3’s do much of your rebounding. LeBron and DWade are tremendous rebounders at their spots when they need to be.

3. Chemistry

Chemistry has been talked about a lot as a potential weakness of this team. The fact that this team has not been together as long as most of the opponents, the fact that they don’t have that “chip on our shoulder” mentality that unifies teams from less successful countries, the fact that the previous World Championship and previous Olympic teams haven’t seemed to have great chemistry has all been considered a concern.

I like what I see so far and I don’t really see that as a problem this time. This team is made up of a lot of good kids and solid citizens. I coached Chris Bosh in Toronto and he is a super kid. You will find him touring the Great Wall and supporting the US Women on off days, not helicoptering over to Macau to get in a few $10,000 limit games of baccarat. I did over 40 Milwaukee Bucks games last year for Fox Sports Net and know Michael Redd to be a quiet, religious, no-nonsense guy. Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard are all especially high-quality guys. LeBron has set a tone for this team with his early enthusiastic commitment to play for the team and Kobe has always been a Coach K guy, which has him acting on his best behavior. Kobe’s insistence on making defense his priority has been a huge asset to the overall team chemistry. The chemistry seems very good, partly because Coach K, Colangelo and staff went into building this team with a stated goal of having chemistry be an important part of this year’s squad, and partly because the reality of losing the last few big tournaments has made chemistry important.

Some additional random thoughts:

• D Wade looks like his old fearless self. He is ducking his head and bulldoggin’ his way to the basket like he has done most of his career. Personally I don’t think he had as off a year as everyone was saying. I did a game in Miami against Minnesota where I believe he went to the line 22 times (21 makes).

• If you could build a Frankenstein player, ‘Melo may be the best player for International Play (size , shooting ability, ball skills). He doesn’t have all the intangibles and his D is not up to snuff, but offensively he is a prototype of an International Competition player. (which reminds me of something I heard John Wooden say at a lunch….he said, and I am paraphrasing, “don’t ever tell me that someone who is a great offensive player can’t be a good defensive player. If you have the tools to be good on offense, like quickness, good footwork and hand-eye coordination, then you certainly have the abilities to be a good defensive player. It simply is a matter of effort!”.)

• The FIBA ball is considered slicker and slightly smaller than NBA ball.

• Michael Redd might be at his absolute best in this environment – with a specialized role as a shooter with the green light. Redd struggled at times last year with Bucks…he shot a low percentage, his ability to be a team leader has been questioned, he has not always shown the ability to make his teammates better. At times he and Mo Williams seemed to have a battle for the ball, (see * link to Mo being traded today), but I think he is at his best with this kind of situation and I think he will be important to the US chances of winning gold.

• In 2010, FIBA is going to the rectangle lane. Both FIBA and the NBA are trying to unify rules a little… (are you listening NCAA; with your 18 different 3 point lines??)

• Early 2012 Olympic coaching candidates (Pop, D’Antoni). My longshot candidate is Doug Collins.